You’ve been looking for a job for several weeks now, and then your former colleague says that she got a job at an excellent company after studying well-known programming, copywriting, and SMM courses — to emphasize. With enthusiasm, you graduate from the same school, but for some reason employers still don’t line up to offer you a place. And judging by what other graduates are chatting, most of them have the same problems, and the lucky ones who managed to find a profitable job right away are rather a rare exception to the general rule. You and all of these people have fallen victim to a cognitive trap — a survivor’s systematic error.
What is a survivor’s mistake
During World War II, the US military assigned mathematician Abraham Wald to figure out how to reduce the loss of military aircraft. He analyzed what damage the planes returning from raids received and where exactly this damage is located. Representatives of the military commission decided that it was in these areas — for example, in the area of the fuselage and fuel system — that the aircraft’s armor should be strengthened.
But Wald saw a discrepancy in this assumption and objected that, on the contrary, it is necessary to strengthen places where there is no damage. Because planes with holes in them — say, in the engine — simply did not return to base.
Abraham Wald called this cognitive distortion, in which we take into account only successful experiences, intentionally or accidentally overshadowing the bad one, a survivor’s mistake.
How a survivor’s mistake affects our lives
When we fall into this trap, we only see those who have succeeded, but we simply do not notice the losers. At the same time, we are fully confident that we are looking at the whole picture. Due to lack of information or unwillingness to take into account negative data, we draw completely wrong conclusions that lead to disappointments, losses and other troubles.
Survivor error and business
Everyone loves success stories. There was a man who seemed to be unremarkable, and then suddenly he became a successful athlete, actor or tycoon who was at the top of the Forbes rankings. And before he succeeded, he grew up in a poor family, as an option, he dropped out of school; he earned his first money as a child selling small things. This archetypal rags to riches story inspires us a lot.
We put ourselves in the shoes of a hero and believe that our lives will also change one day. But in fact, this happens very rarely, and it’s not that someone doesn’t work hard enough or sets goals clearly enough.
Billionaire Amancio Ortega, one of the richest men in the world, once served as a messenger in a clothing store, and began his empire by making women’s nighties with his wife. Another billionaire, Lee Kashin, worked in a factory as a child and then started selling plastic flowers. It sounds inspiring: if they can do it, why can’t I? But the truth is that millions of Chinese children worked in factories but didn’t get rich. We have no idea how many tailors sew to order at home, but in the end, for some reason, they don’t open garment factories and clothing stores. After all, we only hear examples of brilliant and overwhelming success. And hundreds of thousands of failure stories — who needs them?
Infobusiness of all kinds is parasitic on our desire to eat, have a good rest and live a busy life: all these people: “I raised 200,000 freelancing in the first month, and you can do the same”, “I launched a successful startup without investments”, “I am on maternity leave, but I earn more than my husband by promoting Instagram pages*”. And even if all this is the purest truth, we should not forget about those who have not been able to make freelancing a full-time job or failed trying to start their own business. The number of bankruptcies in Russia is growing rapidly, with 90% of companies and sole proprietors closing.
Success is made up of many factors. Hard work and dedication are not its only components.
There are 12 million working poor people in Russia, that is, people who work but also live in poverty. Unfortunately, the chances of success are not as high as they want to present to us, and the “he did it, I could do it” attitude perfectly illustrates the survivor’s systematic mistake.
Survivor error and creativity
Everyone knows almost fabulous celebrity success stories. Before becoming an Oscar-winning actor, Brad Pitt worked as a driver and even invited customers to a restaurant dressed as Chicken. JK Rowling was a single mother and lived on benefits, and after writing the first volume of Harry Potter, she received numerous rejections from publishers.
You can go on for a long time. Almost every star — stage, literature, film, or catwalk — has a story like this. They make us believe that everyone can achieve success, the main thing is determination and desire. But we don’t know how many young actors — perhaps as talented and beautiful as Brad Pitt — pile the doors of studios every day. And we have no idea how many writers haven’t added their manuscripts to the publishing house. No one keeps such statistics. And in vain, because analyzing mistakes would be more useful than retelling success stories endlessly. Moreover, sometimes chance and luck play the main roles in them.
Survivor error and health
Sometimes we fall into a thinking trap because we don’t have the full information or we forget to look at the picture from all angles. In this publication, the researchers analyzed cases where doctors found that surgery was a more effective treatment for infectious endocarditis than drug therapy. The conclusion was based on survival rates and was wrong: scientists initially did not take into account the long-term consequences and the fact that patients receiving medications were in a more serious condition than those who were operated on.
But it also happens that the trap is set specifically for us. For example, pharmaceutical companies order drug studies but only publish positive results. And the negative ones remain in the shadows because they are not in the interests of the manufacturer. And it’s also good if the drug is simply useless. But we may not know about any side effects or contraindications. For example, in 2004, several scientific journals refused to publish the results if the pharmaceutical company did not register the trials from the very start, in which case it would be difficult to conceal some information. But there is no guarantee that all medical journals in the world are as principled.
Also, victims of the trap are those who believe stories like “I cured depression with sports, ulcers with vodka, insomnia with St. John’s wort”. These are all typical illustrations of a survivor’s mistake. Or healed.
Survivor error and cats
In 1987, an article was published in which veterinarians wrote that cats that fall from less than six floors are less likely to survive than those that fall from a higher height. The explanation was quite logical: a cat that fell, for example, from the fourth floor does not have time to regroup in the air, lands unsuccessfully and gets more serious injuries.
Later, it was suggested that this was not entirely true. Animals that fall from the 1st to 5th floors are often brought to the clinic, while those that fall from the sixth floor and above are more likely to be considered hopeless and left to die. This means that a sample based only on cats brought to the vet is not representative.
How to avoid the trap
Examples of a survivor’s systematic error can be listed for a long time. They are found in all walks of life and lead to misconceptions and disappointments. There is no universal way to avoid the trap. But in order not to become a victim of it, before making important decisions, you need to look at the problem from different angles. Collect information, analyze, weigh options, draw conclusions.
Is it worth investing time and money into creating a YouTube channel just because Dud, Soboliev and Sasha Spielberg make millions from their blogs? Should I take courses by following the examples of several graduates who have been hired by large companies? It’s up to you. But to succeed in any business, you should always take into account the mistakes of the losers.
Source: https://lifehacker.ru/oshibka-vyzhivshego/
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